Friday 28 June 2013 btw 9.40-10pm M'sian time NZDUSD outcome

So, I was ready and waiting to pounce on the NZDUSD for a good short, but the price never did reach my target price to sell. I could have taken a short at lower prices but then that would not for me constitute a trade that I had entered with patience and waiting for the market to come to me. SO, I ended the trading day with no trades entered and decided to just call it a week.

Friday 28 June 2013 11am ++ M'sian time NZDUSD analysis

Guys, this is my analysis on the NZD USD.

As mentioned in earlier posts, I had noticed that all the commodities pairs was experiencing support throughout the period of pro-USD sentiment due to speculation on whether the Federal Reserve will taper its QE sooner rather than later.

US datas were closely watched throughout this week, and when the "Initial Jobless claims" reading came out it was not too far off from the forecast, which told me that the market had already priced in the movement hence the strength in the NZD USD. However, 1 and a half hours later, "Pending Home Sales" came out stronger than expected, much much stronger, and this served to strengthen the USD, which dragged this pair down. After that down move, however, NZDUSD has found renewed support. Given the nature of the price action within this week, I will continue looking for short opportunities in this pair as the larger trend is still down as I can see from the charts.

Thursday 27 June 2013 11am M'sian time USDCAD trade taken

AUDUSD 21st June 2013

The Aussie had been on a free fall mode since the last RBA rate cut, the pairs found some support at 0.9325 and showed some sign of retracement especially last Thursday (13th June) after the Employment Data released looks promising. But the minutes of RBA's June 4 meeting showed that policy makers said the Aussie may fall further as export price ease. And they also Repeated that the Bank still have room for further interest rate cut, this will make the traders more willing to sell instead of buy.

Thursday morning after the FOMC meeting, The FEDs suggested the long waited 'QE Tapering', and followed by dissapointing data from China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, the pair continued its downtrend and made a new low. The pair is currently trading @ 0.9235, i personally think the pair is heading to 0.9000 level, i'm waiting for a nice pullback for my sell entry.

From the 1H chart, i will look for sell opportunity near 0.9310 area, risk 70pips, 1st target 70pips (Risk Reward 1:1) and 2nd target 140pips (RR 1:2). Lets see how it goes.

Here's the chart of the recent Gold Price movement.

EURUSD 20th June 2013

Hello Traders,

Yesterday the FED keep their monetory policy unchanged, keep the interest rates steady at 0.00 - 0.25%, and maintained their current pace of  $85b monthly bond buying program. But the FED Chairman suggest that they might begin to 'taper the bond buying program' later this year and maybe end the QE in 2014. They also upgraded the employment and growth forecast. This give a sign to the market to start buying USD (even though they have done nothing yet, only a forecast or projection which MIGHT or MIGHT NOT happen depends on future data releases, but who cares?? As long as the market sentiment changed positive and people start buying USD, i'll join the boat).

The Dollar Index is currently trading at $ 81.73, heading to $82 psychology level, i'm expecting the price to trade around $82 until tonight's News to give confirmation whether to continue rally. If tonight's employment data and manufacturing data is positive, most probably the pair will break $82 heading $83 level. So, Stay tuned for tonight's News release.

From Daily Chart, we can see that the EURUSD found resistance on the Trendline (white) and is currently trading near the neckline of the previous W Breakout. Waiting for catalyst to help the pair choose direction. The previous rally of this pairs is mostly due to USD movement as we don't see anything interesting from Euro side, and fundamentally there's still a lot of issue in Euro side remain unsolved (such as cyprus issue etc). And now the USD starting to change direction, i will be more willing to sell this pair instead of buying it.

From the 4H Chart, i'm waiting for the pair to make some correction before i enter my trade, but if the price doesn't hit my entry point and go further down, i might adjust my entry to 1st TP level if the price breakdown and retest it, and move my SL to current sell limit level. Lets see how it goes tonight :)

 

 

Lets talk about Ben and Yellen.... and also EURO....

Good Day!! Traders!!!

Here is some statistic on Unemployment Rate in Euro Zone & US issues…..just a short write up….

Recent developments in unemployment at a European and Member State level

Eurostat estimates that 26.588 million men and women in the EU-27, of whom 19.375 million were in the euro area (EA-17), were unemployed in April 2013. Compared with March 2013, the number of persons unemployed increased by 104.000 in the EU-27 and by 95.000 in the euro area. Compared with April 2012, unemployment rose by 1 673 000 in the EU-27 and by 1 644 000 in the euro area. The euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 12.2 % in April 2013, up from 12.1 % in March, it was 11.2 % in April 2012.

The EU-27 unemployment rate was 11.0 % in April 2013, stable compared with March; it was 10.3 % in April 2012. Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Austria (4.9 %), Germany (5.4 %) and Luxembourg (5.6 %), and the highest rates in Greece (27.0 % in February), Spain (26.8 %) and Portugal (17.8 %).

Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in eighteen Member States and fell in nine. The highest increases were registered in Greece (21.9 % to 27.0 % between February 2012 and February 2013), Cyprus (11.2 % to 15.6 %), Spain (24.4 % to 26.8 %) and Portugal (15.4 % to 17.8 %). The largest decreases were observed in Latvia (15.5 % to 12.4 % between the first quarters of 2012 and 2013), Estonia (10.6 % to 8.7 % between March 2012 and March 2013) and Ireland (14.9 % to 13.5 %).

What About the Recent Comment from the former ECB council member:

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTIONS ARE THIS?

• Will ECB fight with other countries and be aggressive soon with their QE or more than QE?
• Will they also make their currency weaker so that they can competitive and increase employment rate?
• Recent rise of Euro is it good or bad for them?
• Will there be another CYPRUS soon in EURO ZONE; we all have forgotten about CYPRUS so fast….and this nightmare  is building up – this is my view….will there be sudden appearance of other EU group? 

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE US – CHANGE OF FED CHAIRMAN?

Well there is going to be some serious issues in the US 

• Tightening of monetary policies
• Rise of interest rate
• Inflation
• Unemployment Rate Change to less than 6% 

 

WHAT IS THE LATEST

Good Day!! Traders!!!!

Let’ start with Mario Draghi:

Question for you SIR:

1. What are you plans for Unemployment rate in EURO?
2. What are austerity going to be if you bailout another one like Cyprus?
3. What happened to all the Bailout so far – Greece and the others?
4. What are you going to do with the EURO Dollar getting stronger each day?
5. How are you going to stay Competitive in this Global Market with Strong Euro Dollar against the USD

Questions for you SIR:

1. Do you agree with Mario Draghi the ECB Chairman in what he is doing?
2. What are you going to do with all the DEBT that ECB have given?
3. Germany have slowed down drastically – what are you plans?
4. Do you think Germany will lead EURO moving forward?
5. Are you guys the Hitler of Euro that some are saying – controlling everything?

Questions for you Madam:

1. Are you sure you are happy with what Mario Draghi is doing?
2. What are your long term plans if another scenario like Cyprus were to happen?
3. Will the depositors get their money back?
4. Is Euro really supported by Germany?
5. Are you really helping EURO or bringing them to a dead end?

Questions for you Sir:

1. Why don’t you just tell the world what you are going to do?
2. The market is guessing and that makes innocent people lose lots of money
3. Are you really stepping down and let Yellen take over – come think again SIR
4. US is a father or all nation – show some leadership and make it clear
5. QE are you sure you dare to cut down – when the US ECONOMY is so fragile?

Questions for you Sir:

1. Can you tells us clearly what are your plans
2. Japan needs to get out of Deflation – to be fair to the people of Japan – you have suffered enough – take some bold decision and get the country back to its feet!!
3. You are still far away of 2% inflation that you are looking for – the recent JPY strengthening is making everyone think – ARE YOU SURE YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING?
4. Are you sure you are listening to ABE?

Questions for you Abe Sir:

1. Are you sure you know what is Kuroda doing?
2. What is happening to Japan Stock Market?
3. What is happening to JGB?
4. Why aren’t you doing anything when everyone are killing the YEN last week?
5. Are you going to be just like any other Prime Minister who just resign because you can’t keep your promise?

Questions for you Aso SIR!!:

1. Why are you keeping quiet when everyone is attacking the YEN?
2. Why you are making statement – that Japan wont intervene – when last week JPY was attacked by all traders?
3. What are your plans?
4. 25 years of depression – 25 years come on…..say something that will turn around the economy

Well Traders think for awhile – do you think this leaders are going to make a difference in our life? or are they going to bring more damages than good for the world? This are my personal views and I apologize if I have anyway being offensive or offended in anyway.