Friday, 30 August 2013

30th August 2013 – News Trading and What can you expect today?

Good Day!! Traders and Apprentice
What happened yesterday?
Last week I was warning of the USD REBOUND and it has happened..and what can you expect this coming week and last night shocked everyone with an outstanding GDP results than made the USD rebound strongly..
This news last night made the USD strong…so what can you expect today?
  • I am expecting the news in EURO to further be bad and will continue dragging the EURO lower
  • Keep your eyes on German Retail sales and the Italian Unemployment Rate which I am expecting to be bad…
  • CPI lower results going to drag the EURO lower and forcing the ECB to act on interest rate next month
  • EURO unemployment is on focus today and any bad news will also drag the EURO down
  • If you are trading the CAD keep your eye on GDP news as any good news you will have the CAD strengthen with a huge candle down…..
  • Very interesting USD/CAD trade tonight….
  • Friday will end with US consumer sentiment and FOMC Bullard views…
  • Which I don’t see anything significant because of the anticipation of NFP next week and Tapering by the FED is on the table AND THIS WEEKEND AIR STRIKE BY NATO into SYRIA….
  • USD is going to be a currency to keep an eye on….
NOTE: don’t be AGGRESSIVE today but rather conservative as we prepare for next week NFP – Non-Farm Payroll….
HEAD OF EDUCATION

*This post was derived from www.traderence.com

Disclaimer: Traderence Holdings Pte, Ltd. does not offer trading calls, trading models or portfolios that Subscribers should follow. Any trading model, trading call, or portfolios presented are Traderence Holdings Pte, Ltd. own opinions and are solely intended as educational information. Traderence Holdings Pte, Ltd. does not claim to have any special insight on the markets or on any security, nor does Traderence Holdings Pte, Ltd. claim that it is always correct in its opinions, trading calls, or securities selection. Traderence Holdings Pte, Ltd. will make mistakes and make bad trading calls. These are part of the education processes. Readers and or Subscriber need to make his/her own decisions as to what they should do with regard to their own trading and investing decisions.

Friday, 23 August 2013

The search for trading methods

The nature of humans being lazy, 

we tend to want to go for the easy way of doing things. And I don't think there is anything wrong with it, provided the easy way and the right way happen to be the same. Hence, providing the rationale for many would-be traders to keep searching for the Holy Grail - the one single method or formula that they can follow step by step to extract riches from the market. What many do not realise that the trading strategies are the simple thing, the hard thing is to keep themselves from straying away or constantly modifying what works; The following are some of the mistakes that many of us tend to make : - 

1. Not honoring stops or cut loss points, or constantly re-adjusting our stops to being outside of the original trading plan. This is one of the main mistakes that can cause otherwise profitable systems to becoming loss-making systems


2. Trading aggressively during draw downs with no respect for risk. Every strategy that has been conceived comes with losing trades. It is a part of the game. Understand that our focus should be on risk management first and foremost, without which there are NO consistent profits.

3. Lack of discipline, shifting from the initial trading plan of clearly defined entries and exit signals to personal opinions is detrimental, no matter how good you think your opinions have done in the past.

4. Not following money management rules and trading with too much risk. Many times, one does not realise this unless you are in a bad position.

5. Shifting from strategy to strategy in the middle of trades, or changing a short term trade to a long term trade or vice versa with no proper planning.

6. You have to have confidence in your method of trading. Confidence does not come from big words or the fact that you feel good. Confidence comes from doing homework and research.

7. Trying to get out of a bad loss with a single, big trade is almost always detrimental unless you have a proper plan of action to follow.

Wednesday, 14 August 2013

No money down deals? How?

If you are within the age of 20-45 years old, live in Kuala Lumpur or any other prominent city/town within Malaysia, working professional and/or are constantly connected to the Internet, which in this day and age, is practically every living person, at least those that I know of, would have heard of the group buying phenomenon of real estate or properties.

What it is is a person or a company, generally headed by property investment coaches, who hold seminars to sell to you the idea of buying a certain development or a group of properties, as a group, thus entitling everyone to a bulk discount. Now, I cannot vouch for the effectiveness of whatever strategies these groups are using as I have never participated in any group buying although I have personally attended some of these seminars. However, in theory, the strategies that they advocate are, in my opinion, sound and genuine ideas, and I also have some personal friends who have benefited (made money) by going into investments with these organisations or groups.

Personally, being a property investor, I have not participated in any of these as I find the issue of having little or limited say in how I want to manage my property or how much I want to make, or how long I would like to hold the property not to my liking. Many of the property investors who have made serious money solely from property investing that I know of are individual investors or companies who make their own choices, and deal with their own consequences. I am talking about individuals who hold or control tens of millions of ringgit worth of properties, and in some cases hundreds of millions. Now, I am not saying that these people do not participate in group buying, but they do it on their own terms, hence they have more control over the choices that they make.

Anyhow, one of the ideas that I agree with on what the group buying investors are doing is their preference for no money down deals, meaning you do not have to come up with money out of pocket, or minimal amount of money out of pocket, in order to gain control of a property.

So, how do you do a no-money-down deal?


One of the simplest, and most common forms of doing a no-money-down deal is to link up with other investors who have the money, commonly referred to as a JV. Now, I know what you are thinking; how is this any different from group buying?

Firstly, group buying organisations GENERALLY tend to go for new developments as they are looking to buy in bulk. In the case of a JV, one need not necessarily be going for buying under construction projects directly from developer, but can also opt for buying completed properties, better still if in a prime location at a good price, but the best is it would also be tenanted and providing some form of cashflow. Whether the cashflow generated is worth the price is something which I will elaborate on, but know that group buying organisations will not tell you to go for these deals even if it is a super good deal, as it will not fit their modus operandi of going for a bulk discount when negotiating with the developer. If anything, the company might buy it for themselves.

A typical example I can provide you is with my own experience. I had identified a property located in one of the prime areas of Kuala Lumpur, which was owned by a Malaysian staying overseas. Now, this property was then being put on the market for a price which I deemed relatively cheap compared to its full net value. The reason why this was being sold at that price at that time was that the owner had owned this property for quite some time and being overseas, was most probably finding it a bit troublesome to maintain, and also maybe not as in touch with the local market and how it was doing. I saw my opportunity, and brought this deal to a partner who had invested with me before. Long story short, I came up with the loan financing from the bank, and my partner pledged the upfront cash (hence I did not have to come up with any money out of pocket). By the time the booking deposit was paid and before the SPA was signed, I made RM 150,000 on the deal, hence making me money in a minimal amount of time, with minimal effort and minimal risk (as I had done my due diligence on the property in terms of its demand for sales and for rentals).

Now, this is just one of the ways that one can make money by purchasing real estate using a "no-money-down" strategy. It is extremely useful for those investors who have limited cash to throw around or invest, however, the pre-requisite is that your credit rating is sound. I will share the other "no-money-down" strategies in another article.

The other strategy for growing your money through investments with a limited amount of cash is through......TRADING!!! For info on that, read the rest of the articles on this blog or email me at traderbuffalo@gmail.com.

Friday, 9 August 2013

Understand yourself and your risk appetite


One of our associate traders understands his method well, and understands the risk that he constantly undertakes, which is that he can lose all the money in his account anytime, but being prepared for that and being able to trade without emotion is key. I congratulate him on his recent results! I understand that he has achieved returns of 300%-400% within a few months.

Many people think that making money from trading is easy, and they are wrong. Many people also think that making a few hundred percent from trading in a short amount of time is impossible, and they are also wrong. End of the day, it all boils down to what is the amount of risk you are willing to undertake and whether you can take the drawdowns, both financially and emotionally.

As long as you can do that, and do it in a consistent manner, you may have found your niche and your new trading business to be in. Understanding your risk, margins and leveraging is key to trading successfully, WHATEVER your strategy may be.

If you would like to learn this key, write in to traderbuffalo@gmail.com.

Tuesday, 6 August 2013

USDCAD headed where? (Update)




Will this be the start of the  Pro-USD movement? The news tonight should set the tone. The market is tired of Ben Bernanke's games and have taken the recent good data as a sign that the USD should strengthen?

Look at what happened;


Monday, 5 August 2013

After Weak NFP last week, do you think the Tapering will happen in September??


Good Days Traders..... what a disappointment from the job data last week, here's some recap of last week USD News and price movement... where will the Dollar heading this week???
 
USD News releases

USD Price Movement
Last week, The Dollar Index open at $81.60 and trading between $81.60 - $82.00 on Monday and Tuesday, as market is waiting for the releases of employment data which will shed some light whether the FED will taper the QE in September. 

On Wednesday, the Index breakout of $82 resistance and rallied to $82.30 after the ADP Non-Farm data showed a whopping 200k Job creation compare to market consensus of 179k. And the Advance GDP also showed a 1.7% improvement from last quarter. But the Bull of the Dollar did not last long and given back all its winning slightly after the traders found out the 1st Q GDP was revised downward from 1.8% to 1.1%. And the Bear continued to take charge latter when the FOMC statement releases did not give a clear time of tapering as most traders are expecting.


















Thursday, the data continued to came in good as the Unemployment Claims reported  326k compare to previous 345k, showing some improvement on Job markets. And ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a huge improvement, 55.4, the highest since May 2011, compare to forecast 52.1 and previous month 50.9.
The optimism of Dollar keep on piling and the Index break Wed's high and traded near $82.50 on Friday before the Non-Farm Employment Data. The dramatic reversal came in after the NFP data shocked the market by only showing 162k which is lower than market expectation 184k and last month data 188k. The Dollar erased 60 cents of its winning, dropped from $82.60 to $82.






Judging from the latest employment data, and the fact that the 1st Quarter GDP had been revised down from 2.5% ---> 2.4% ---> 1.8% ---> and finally 1.1%. (I dunno, this look likes data manipulation to me, will this happen again on 2nd Q GDP??). Even tough that the US economy is expanding and improving, but i personally don't think the recent datas is strong enough to convinced the FED to start tapering next month, we might need a couple more months of improving data for the FED to make decision, maybe Mr.Ben's successor will take the lead, so that he/she can become a Hero and easier for hin/her to implement other policies in future.

Thursday, 1 August 2013

AUDUSD - Will history repeat itself?




Again, the AUDUSD has formed a new low. Will history repeat itself again and will the AUDUSD bounce again strongly? If you look at the charts you will see that this particular price level, which is nearing 0.9000, meaning it is 90 cents to the US dollar, has been a very strong support level for the AUDUSD.

In fact, personal acquaintances of mine had been advised by many green "financial advisers" from the banks to exchange their Ringgit for the Aussie dollar, as "It is at historical lows". This person was cursing them when he was telling me this story, as he had done so to support his children's education in Australia.

Guess what, the AUD has now broken the 0.9000 level to the US dollar, and is now trading at approximately 88 to 90cents to the US dollar. Commercial hedgers may now have joined the fray by coming in to hedge their currency risk, largely from the import-export sectors.

Of course, the RBA's strength is no match for the Federal Reserve, but does Ben Bernanke still have any reason to continue the Quantitative Easing?? To be on the safe side, I will continue shorting this currency at all new highs.