After Weak NFP last week, do you think the Tapering will happen in September??

Good Days Traders..... what a disappointment from the job data last week, here's some recap of last week USD News and price movement... where will the Dollar heading this week???

 

USD News releases

USD Price Movement

Last week, The Dollar Index open at $81.60 and trading between $81.60 - $82.00 on Monday and Tuesday, as market is waiting for the releases of employment data which will shed some light whether the FED will taper the QE in September. 

On Wednesday, the Index breakout of $82 resistance and rallied to $82.30 after the ADP Non-Farm data showed a whopping 200k Job creation compare to market consensus of 179k. And the Advance GDP also showed a 1.7% improvement from last quarter. But the Bull of the Dollar did not last long and given back all its winning slightly after the traders found out the 1st Q GDP was revised downward from 1.8% to 1.1%. And the Bear continued to take charge latter when the FOMC statement releases did not give a clear time of tapering as most traders are expecting.

Thursday, the data continued to came in good as the Unemployment Claims reported  326k compare to previous 345k, showing some improvement on Job markets. And ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a huge improvement, 55.4, the highest since May 2011, compare to forecast 52.1 and previous month 50.9.

The optimism of Dollar keep on piling and the Index break Wed's high and traded near $82.50 on Friday before the Non-Farm Employment Data. The dramatic reversal came in after the NFP data shocked the market by only showing 162k which is lower than market expectation 184k and last month data 188k. The Dollar erased 60 cents of its winning, dropped from $82.60 to $82.

Judging from the latest employment data, and the fact that the 1st Quarter GDP had been revised down from 2.5% ---> 2.4% ---> 1.8% ---> and finally 1.1%. (I dunno, this look likes data manipulation to me, will this happen again on 2nd Q GDP??). Even tough that the US economy is expanding and improving, but i personally don't think the recent datas is strong enough to convinced the FED to start tapering next month, we might need a couple more months of improving data for the FED to make decision, maybe Mr.Ben's successor will take the lead, so that he/she can become a Hero and easier for hin/her to implement other policies in future.