Wednesday, 18 September 2013

A very interesting perspective from a fundamentalist standpoint

So, I am of the view that successful trading should consist of both technical and fundamentalist points of view. And no matter what alot of pure technicians out there might say, a trader once summed up this argument in a simple sentence; "It is fundamental developments that moves markets, it is not a line on a chart that moves the markets".

Meaning to say, that end of the day, it is fundamental reasons that form the core of supply and demand and the movements of money in and out of markets rather than just because of past data. Do technicals work? Yes, they do in my opinion, but being able to utilise fundamental information effectively is how alot of traders make BIG money.

However, trading with fundamental information is not easy, but it is also precisely because it is hard that the traders that know how to use it effectively can profit so much from it, and we're talking about millions and billions being made and put on the line because of fundamentals, not your measly few thousand bucks.

The following is a very interesting fundamentalist standpoint and one that takes into account going in depth into many, many factors but does not go too far and can come up with a realistic hypothesis.

Anyway, here it is;



Monday morning shocked lots of traders when there were huge gaps across all currencies; what exactly happened, and these are my views...

MY VIEWS ON MONDAY...LARRY SUMMERS SUDDEN WITHDRAWAL WAS A DECOY....

  • Fed is running out of options; they need to price all major pairs before they announce the tapering in full scale
  • Larry Summers withdrawal on Monday was very strategic; and all currencies took a ride to the north and now riding the way down
  • Will FED Taper this week; the answer is absolutely YES!!
  • The next focus is on the interest rates and this will make all FED bonds unlikeable...and sell off may take place... but the good news is this Monday event has already priced in everything
Look at the USD FUTURE CHARTS: Strategic to second support line Price and now is retracing back.....
What is my conclusion?
  • Don't listen to those noises of Larry Summers or anything else; focus on the reality of the US, Europe, Australia, China situation....NOT GOOD AT ALL
  • Listen to the Emerging Market Dilemma....BRIC - (BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA & CHINA) - They will get hit the moment tapering starts...
  • CRABS - (CANADA, RUSSIA, BRAZIL, AUSTRALIA & SOUTH AFRICA) - The commodities based countries are all in trouble if the Taper starts...
Well think again was Monday Announcement a Strategic move by FED & OBAMA administration...HAVE PRICED EVERYTHING before Thursday morning announcement...
USD WILL STRENGTHEN...and once again the downward spiral will start; but the effect has been absorbed...

The Oil speaks of it all..... with a strong co-relation with USD.....
Let's see what happens on Thursday morning at 2am Singapore time....
* Article courtesy of Traderence Holdings Pte Ltd

So what do you think of the of the fundamental analysis above? In my opinion, it is very good, it works to the extent that it gives the trader and idea to work with, and what to look out for. In more specific detail, how do you use this to your advantage? That is a lesson for another time.



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