Thursday, 10 October 2013

GBPUSD reversal coming in?

So, it seems that the minor downtrend being formed in the GBPUSD has been solidified and established? However, is this just a pullback before going even higher or is a reversal actually coming in? Let's take a look;

Much will depend on the stance of the BOE and its governor Mark Carney, and what the decision will be in terms of its monetary policy, ie whether the BOE is going to reduce, maintain, or increase interest rates and what their justification behind its move will be.

In fact, it was because Mr Carney did not increase interest rates which disappointed the GBP bulls, and prompted the strong upward movement to start easing off.

The fact that the US government is taking the first steps to bridge their disagreements between the Republicans and Democrats in terms of the debt ceiling and government spending is giving USD bulls some reason to celebrate and we can see it being reflected in most of the major pairs, ie USDJPY, EURUSD, and of course the GBPUSD. (Read : http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-firms-up-on-u.s.-debt-ceiling-deal-hopes-253718)

Of course, the announcement by Barack Obama on the next person he is tapping to be the Federal Reserve chairperson has eased alot of uncertainty and also yesterday evening's FOMC meeting minutes have given the market the impression of tapering "ALMOST" being on the table.


Well, if you are also looking at the 7pm "Asset purchase facility" and "Rate Statement" reading, you might also want to take a minute to look at what Mark Carney and his team are thinking or looking at. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-09/carney-eyes-recovery-momentum-as-boe-seen-showing-united-front.html

I would personally read it as saying that the BOE is actually very cautious on its economic growth at the moment and that they will not increase interest rates with more allowance for further easing measures. This will be supported by the fact that recent data coming out of the UK is still shaky. (Industrial output & facorty production readings from yesterday)

I managed to get some profit from selling the GBP when it broke down of the second level of support, but maintaining caution as the market still seems uncertain on outcome from the US. However, for now, to follow the trend would be to continue selling.



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